让创新实实在在地变成公司政策

要让创新成为公司的政策,必须首先完成以下几件事：1.要让每个人都兴奋起来;2.要让他们团结起来;3.扫清障碍,腾出地方。     

Globalization and regionalization: Toward the shaping of a tripolar world economy?

Trade relations today are undergoing more fundamental change than at any time since immediately after World War II. The rules of the game in international economic relations have changed dramatically, particularly since the early 1980s. The multilateral trading system is facing a severe test, with an apparent tilting of the preferences of its major players in favor of subglobal arrangements. At the same time, a growing number of developing countries are embracing unilateral trade liberalization. This article presents how new developments in international business and trade affect international relations and the evolution of a new world order. In doing this, the process of globalization and economic integration, the building of economic blocs in Europe and North America, and the response from Asia will be examined. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

World real interest rates: a global savings and investment perspective

Over the past 15 years, long-term interest rates have declined to levels not seen since the 1970s. This article explores possible shifts in global savings and investment that have led to this fall in the world real interest rate. There are several key findings. First, the authors identify the relative weakness in investment demand as more important than the relative increase in desired global savings to explain the decline in global interest rates. Second, the results indicate that the key factors explaining movements in savings and investment are variables that evolve relatively slowly over time, such as labour force growth and age structure. The conclusions suggest that over the coming years, world real interest rates are likely to continue to adjust slowly, reflecting long-term trends.     

A methodologist's econometric model selection

Conclusion The use of shortcuts to predict time series is discouraged by the findings of this paper. First, if time series data are no longer considered to be the result of random sampling, statistical analyses based on properties of sampling distributions become questionable. Using the shoal of fish analogy, we should be wary of considering our catch of fish caught in one dip of the net as essentially identical to another catch obtained from another dip. Second, transformation of time series data to achieve stationarity prevents the user of VAR-related methods from relying on information that is potentially symptomatic of misspecification, especially in the form of missing variables. Since the incidence of missing variables is enhanced the more “compact” is the model used, the implications of the stationarity assumption are vast. Third, uninformed comparisons of the short-term forecasting performance of VAR and large-scale commercial forecasting models leads to a more positive evaluation of VAR than is otherwise warranted. Overall, using our shoal of fish metaphor one final time, we should focus more attention on the reasons why the shoal is in its present location, the reasons why the fish are the size they appear to have, the reasons why the size of the shoal increases and the reasons why the shoal moves from one location to another. If there are sharks around, we should want to know, rather than ignoring their presence.     

Sustainability impacts of car road pricing: A computable general equilibrium analysis for Austria

Nationwide car road pricing schemes are discussed across Europe. We analyse the impacts of such schemes with respect to environmental, economic and social indicators of sustainability, also quantifying the trade-offs among these three dimensions under different charging principles and revenue recycling options. In our analysis we employ a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach, develop a modelling structure for private transport and provide detailed empirical analysis for the case of Austria. Regarding the social dimension, it has often been argued that poorer households (and commuters) would have to bear a disproportionate share of the road pricing burden. We find the contrary, i.e. a stronger negative policy impact on richer households, and on a small group of intensive car users. The choice of revenue recycling is able to ameliorate the negative social and economic effects of road pricing, without reversing the desired positive environmental effects. For political feasibility, questions of distributional impacts are most urgent and therefore we address them systematically within a quantitative framework.